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Shipping companies expressed caution about any quick return to the Red Sea route, after the Yemen-based Houthis signalled a pause in their attacks on commercial vessels.
The targeting of vessels by the Iran-backed group has led to rerouting around South Africa that adds thousands of miles to journeys, increasing costs and carbon emissions.
Any mass resumption of transits through the Red Sea — which never totally stopped — would be significant for both shippers and commodity markets.
On Thursday, Houthi leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi said the group would follow a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, suggesting a halt in its campaign.
Ambrey estimates that phase two of the ceasefire — more than a month away — likely offers grounds for the Houthis to officially end attacks against Israeli, US and the UK’s merchant fleets.
“We might see some ships resume Red Sea transits in the coming weeks,” said Jakob Larsen, chief safety & security officer at shipping trade group BIMCO. “But it will require fairly strong indications of ceasefire stability before shipping in general resumes transits to pre-conflict levels. The container lines will probably take a little longer.”
Maersk said it will return to the Red Sea and sailing through the notorious Bab el Mandeb strait when it’s safe, adding it was still too early to speculate about timing.
“This remains a deeply complex and volatile region where the idea of threat levels to vessels and their crews substantially subsiding in the near-term is unrealistic,” said Munro Anderson, head of operations at marine war risk and insurance specialist Vessel Protect.
“For there to be any tangible impact on marine risk rates we would need first to see an independent declaration by the Houthis that they were ceasing all operations against commercial shipping within the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden,” he added.
Houthi attacks on merchant ships have included the seizing of the Galaxy Leader and hitting an oil tanker with a missile and causing a large fire.
“We will only consider resuming operations through the Red Sea when deemed safe and secure,” by trusted authorities, Hafnia said in an emailed statement. —Bloomberg
