Weather experts allay drought fears

Sifelani Tsiko

Innovations Editor

METEOROLOGICAL Services Department (MSD) forecasters say they still expect a La Niña to develop in the October–November–December (OND) period and play a role in rainfall distribution across much of the country, despite fears by other climate forecasters that a weakening La Nina could deepen the drought in Zimbabwe and much of Southern Africa.

Head of forecasting, Mr James Ngoma, told The Herald yesterday that a forecast issued in August showed that there were chances of normal-to-below normal rains in the OND period, with normal-to-above-normal in the last half of the 2024–2025 rainfall season.

“There is no need to panic. We are still expecting what we predicted at the start of the season. We will continue to monitor and give the public an information outlook for the coming months,” he said.

“If you check our seasonal forecast, we said that we will get normal to below normal rains in the OND period, but as the season progresses we expect normal to above normal rains. We are expecting an improvement in rains as the season progresses.

“Our rainfall distribution is still a bit favourable. We got some rain this week and we still expect more next week. Last year, we got rains from October 16 to 17 and the rains disappeared until November.”

Some global meteorological agencies are now reporting a weakening La Nina weather system usually associated with good rains, sparking fears of a second consecutive drought for Zimbabwe and most other countries in southern Africa.

The reports have brought significant uncertainty about prospects of a La Niña weather event in the OND period, raising doubt that this natural event which typically brings good rains in southern Africa, could provide relief for the entire subcontinent for the 2024–2025 cropping season.

Climate experts fear this will deepen drought in a region reeling from devastating dry conditions experienced last season.

In a recent update, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said chances of La Nina weather events in coming months have decreased, adding that if this phenomenon occurs, it would be weak and short-lived.

“The chance of a La Nina event developing in the coming months has decreased,” the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said.

Climate models by the bureau suggest that the development of La Nina will not be significant enough to bring good rains, in a forecast that could also see similar conditions taking place in southern Africa since Australia also lies in the Southern Hemisphere.

However, Mr Ngoma said both the Sadc regional weather outlook and national forecasts were consistent with predictions by some global weather agencies.

“This is in agreement with what other global agencies are giving where they are predicting that we are not getting into a very strong La Nina but rather a weak one as predicted by the Meteorological Services Department as well as the SADC region where we held our seasonal outlook for the entire SADC within Zimbabwe in August,” he said.

“We had the entire SADC team in Zimbabwe during that period and we also predicted the same and this translated to our national forecast – our National Climate Outlook where we projected close to neutral with an inclination of slightly becoming a La Nina.

“For the OND period we should get normal to below normal rainfall as we start the season, but as we get to December, January, February and into March, we are expecting normal to above normal rainfall.

“It should start at a slow rate but we should expect increased precipitation as we get into the later months of the season.”

In August this year, the 29th Annual Southern Africa Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) forecast that the bulk of the SADC region was likely to receive good rainfall in the coming 2024-2025 summer cropping season.

SADC regional climate experts forecasted that the bulk of the SADC region was likely to receive normal to above normal rainfall in the October to December (OND) 2024 period, including Mauritius and central Madagascar, apart from north-western part of Democratic Republic of Congo where above-normal rainfall is expected.

This is expected to bring relief to the region which was battered by one of the worst El Nino-induced droughts in years during the previous season.

In May this year, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and other global weather bureaus were getting early signals that a La Nina weather event may form in the Pacific Ocean later this year, something that could increase chances of wetter conditions in Zimbabwe and other countries in southern Africa during the 2024/25 cropping season.

At the time, a WMO update said there was about a 60 percent chance of El Niño persisting from March to May and a 80 percent chance of neutral conditions (neither El Niño or La Niña) in April to June.

But some weather agencies are now painting a different picture.

“If a La Nina were to develop, it is forecast to be relatively weak (in terms of the strength of the sea surface temperature anomaly) and short-lived, with all models forecasting neutral values in February,” the Australian weather bureau said.

Another US forecast agent was also reporting similar signals, suggesting a weaker forming of the La Nina.

The formation of a La Nina event and its opposite, El Nino, often attract global attention because of its impact on agriculture in southern Africa and other parts of the world.

There is high anticipation that a La Nina event will bring huge relief to the southern Africa region battered by a massive drought last season.

Zimbabwe and most other SADC countries recorded the lowest rainfall in decades in the 2023-2024 cropping season resulting in increased food insecurity and water shortages across the region.

The El Nino weather pattern has affected agricultural production and other key sectors like tourism, industry and energy production.

Due to the weather phenomenon, Zimbabwe, Zambia and Malawi have all launched appeals for food aid to support millions of food insecure people.